What’s the difference between the game of chicken played by Jimmy Dean in “Rebel Without a Cause” and the game currently under way between the Whitehouse and Congress?
Sadly, not much.
In the classic game played via automobiles, each player makes his choice to swerve (or not) independently and on his own; i.e. once they get in their respective cars, they players can’t communicate. The fancy name for this, apparently, is an “anti-coordinated” game. There are, apparently, multiple equilibriums making the outcome very difficult to predict.
At the end of the day, the only strategy one really has, is to convince the other guy you’re crazy enough to prefer crashing than being called a chicken. It speaks to why there’s so much blustering on the talking heads shows.
In the slow motion beltway version, however, Obama and Boehner are in their respective cars while chatting to each other on the phone. The have endless private meetings allowing them to horse trade and figure out all sorts of ways to both swerve while making it look like it wasn’t they who swerved. This model speaks to why the debt ceiling has been raised some many times in the past. Their ability to cooperate usually makes the outcomes look more like a coordination game.
To pummel the allegory to death, however, now picture each guy both chatting on the phone with the opposite diver while simultaneously barking on a bullhorn to the crown of on-lookers. How far fetched is it for each side to privately negotiate with it’s opponent while feigning intransigence to the crowd? The problem, of course, is the more you posture to your constituents, the harder it is to “stage” the eventual swerve. You sort of end up back to the simple game of chicken; back to just blustering like crazy, hoping the other side cracks under the pressure.
What if you could actually convince everyone involved that you’d rather crash than swerve? If I were Boehner, I would drone on about the freshman batch of Tea Party candidates and how intransigent they are. I would also make sure to point out that if he raises taxes his constituents will not reelect him; i.e. I’m out of a job weather I crash or swerve, so I’m going to close my eyes and punch the gas.
To me, that’s just it. I’m starting to wonder if anyone cares about the country more than they care about their political career. Will anyone fall on their sword and cave so the US doesn’t default? Or, maybe we shouldn’t be so cynical. Maybe there are voters who still value leaders who compromise.
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