The Reserve Bank’s lowering of its interest rate forecasts has improved the outlook for home loan affordability through late 2011 and into 2012 as house prices remain stable in most cities and incomes edge higher.
The Roost Home Loan Affordability report for August shows a slight deterioration in August from July because the national median house price nudged higher, but affordability is near its best levels since early 2004 because of record low interest rates.
Massey University’s home affordability report, also released today, shows cautious buyers and low rates of new construction have left the housing market subdued.
Massey’s report says home affordability improved slightly during the last quarter, but was slowing.
Professor Bob Hargreaves from the university’s school of economics and finance said a growth and wages and low mortgage interest rates had offset a slight increase in the media house price.
Last week the Reserve Bank forecast short term interest rates would rise around 1.5 percentage points over the next year, which is lower than its previous forecast for a rise of about 2 percentage points.
The bank said slower global growth, a delayed Christchurch rebuild and the dampening effect of a high New Zealand dollar were factors lowering the interest rate outlook.
Economists also pushed back their forecasts for an Official Cash Rate hike to around March 2012 from December, and some suggested those borrowers thinking of fixing should think again about floating.
Rhonda Maxwell, spokeswoman for mortgage broking group Roost Home Loans, said the change in the interest rate outlook improved the outlook for home loan affordability too,.
“It changes the equation for home buyers over the next year or two and may prompt potential home buyers to re-do their calculations,” Maxwell said.
“Banks remain keen to lend and often offer deals through mortgage brokers that can further improve those equations,” she said.
Affordability improved in central Auckland, North Shore, Central Wellington, Hutt Valley and West Auckland in August because of a fall in median house prices, the Roost Home Loan Affordability report shows.
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